Don't look now but the team's ERA leader is none other than Mike Pelfrey. Is this performance legit or should we all brace for more impact?
This post should come with a disclaimer in a big, bold font that screams out SMALL SAMPLE SIZE AHEAD but most people should realize that three outings is nothing to base any long-term projection on. That being said, in this small sampling Pelfrey has shown some indication that he may actually be a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter. Wait. Serviceable?
Yes, I know 4/20 was on Monday but believe me, I am not high. There are several reasons why maybe -- just maybe -- he might be able to provide decent innings for the Twins as a starter. For example, he has shown in his first three outings that he can miss a few bats on occasion.
Pelfrey's 2015 season has seen him hit double-digits in swinging strikes in two of the three starts. That's mildly impressive since the last time he was healthy -- in 2013 -- he managed to induce double-digit swings-and-misses in just two of his 29 starts. Prior to his Tommy John surgery, he induced double-digit swing-and-misses in three of his 34 starts in 2011. Admittedly, even Pelfrey's 9% swinging strike rate is still below the league's average of 10% but it is a vast improvement from where it was.
Missing bats means he is showing opponents a new wrinkle and hitting his spots just off the plate. This was something that he did not do in either of the last two seasons. During those two seasons, while recovering from Tommy John and battling a new injury, he throttled down on his mediocre fastball and opponents pasted it all over the field. In 2013, they posted an .801 OPS against it. Last year, it was at .972.
The reality was that Pelfrey was unable to generate enough velocity to make the pitch effective. Over the last two years that average velocity has been 92.3 and 90.3 respectively. Now, in his first three games, he is averaging 93.4 with the fastball. Not only that, but he's throwing it less frequently and mixing in more slow curves and introducing a split-finger that he has not used in quite some time. The change in velocity has helped keep hitters off his fastball.
With the Mets, Pelfrey threw the pitch as a split-finger fastball with modest velocity. He abandoned the pitch with the Twins but has since resurrected it as more of a changeup-type offering, slowing it down some in the delivery. This has been a very effective pitch for him against left-handed hitters as he's held that side to a .162 average.
As you can see in this 2-2 splitter to the Royals' Eric Hosmer and the 0-2 one to Kendrys Morales, this pitch has the potential to be a genuine swing-and-miss pitch against lefties:



While he's thrown the pitch in each of his three starts, he threw it 24 times against the Royals which led to three of his strikeouts including Hosmer and Morales. Oh, and the strikeout of the right-handed hitting Paulo Orlando as well.


Keep in mind that although he is missing more bats on the season, he is not necessarily striking more people out. Until the game in Kansas City where he used his splitter more, he really lacked a put away pitch. If he can continue to locate this pitch like he did on Wednesday night, it could become a lethal pitch.
All that is good for the Mike Pelfrey brand but there are also indications that this is all smoke-and-mirrors, such as the fact that Pelfrey has struggled to get ahead of hitters. His 56% first-pitch strike rate is well below the league's average of 61% meaning that he is pitching from behind in the count more often than his fellow pitchers. From a deficit, it is more likely that bad things happen as he is forced to come into the zone.
What's more is that Pelfrey has continuously flirted with disaster when he puts runners on. From the stretch he hits the zone at a much lower clip and has ended up adding more base-runners via a walk. It seems like a miracle that he has been able to work out of the situations that he has created and to have a 2.65 ERA. If he cannot stop compounding the problem, at some point those base-runners will start to come home.
The fact is that Pelfrey's ceiling, based on his track record and pitch mix, is lower than most. Even with the improvements to his velocity and new pitch his upside feels like a fifth-starter in a rotation filled with fifth starters. If these improvements are sustained, the needle would move only slightly. Ultimately, he may serve better as a bullpen replacement for Blaine Boyer or Tim Stauffer.
With Ricky Nolasco's rehab start pushed to Sunday in Cedar Rapids due to inclement weather, Pelfrey should be allotted at least one more start against the Detroit Tigers to build on what he did to the Royals lineup before the team needs to make a rotation decision.
The Twins will have an interesting decision to make when and if Nolasco is ready to rejoin the team, but there is one thing for certain, Trevor May should not be a casualty.

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